The Philadelphia Phillies find themselves watching the playoffs from the couch once again after another disappointing exit. They finished 88-74, second in the National League (NL) East, before losing the NL Wild Card series to divisional rival Atlanta Braves. The loss leaves the aging roster at a crossroads. The superstar corps of the Phils’ roster is no younger than 28, with most of their key players being between 32-34. Simply put, it is now or never for the Phillies to go all in and win with this roster.
First, the Phillies must establish the new coaching regime and find consistent direction. After firing manager Rob Thomson after 28 games last year, the Phillies appointed interim manager Don Mattingly as their manager for at least the next two years, signing him to an extension. Philadelphia also parted ways with hitting coach Kevin Long and infield coach Bobby Dickerson. Former Red Sox hitting coach Peter Fatse will replace Long, while former Mets manager Carlos Mendoza takes over as infield coach.
The Phillies also face decisions on several pending free agents: first and third baseman Alec Bohm, second baseman Luis Arraez, left-handed pitcher (LHP) Jose Alvarado, left and right field Adolis Garcia, LHP Brooks Raley and utility Edmundo Sosa. It is almost certain that the Phillies will let Raley and Garcia walk. Raley struggled since his acquisition at the trade deadline, making his departure likely. However, they will most certainly reassign their other big trade deadline swing in Arraez, who they brought in from San Francisco and was a major contributor for the Phillies down the stretch. Left-handed reliever Alvarado is also most likely to be reassigned on a team friendly deal due to his regression. However, he has been serviceable in a notably weak bullpen.
The big questions loom around Bohm and Sosa. Current rumors suggest the Phillies could let both walk to pursue bigger bats and stronger defenders. Bohm is expected to land a contract between three to four years, and 12-16 million Average Annual Value (AAV). Sosa is expected to land a one-to-two-year contract for about 6 million AAV. Bohm has been serviceable for the Phillies, but his production will not justify that price. Letting him go would also create financial flexibility around the contracts of Bryce Harper, Kyle Schwarber and Zack Wheeler. Sosa, however, is worth retaining. His above average defense at five positions makes him valuable depth the Phillies need to retain.
The roster has two glaring needs. The first priority has to be quality, high-leverage relief pitching. Closer Jhoan Duran cannot carry the leverage situations alone. Padres’ left-hander Adrian Morejon is the top free agent available, who is expected to fetch 14-18 million AAV on a three-to-five-year deal. If the Phillies are looking for more budget friendly options, which is most likely the case, Yankees closer David Bednar, Pirates setup man Gregory Soto and Marlins closer Pete Fairbanks, projected around the seven to 10 million AAV figure.
The other priority should be adding one to two right-handed hitters who can defend. The lineup needs more right-handed production against left-handed pitching, while the Phillies defensive struggles, mostly in part due to down years from shortstop Trea Turner and Bohm also need addressing. The Phillies have been heavily linked to Mariner’s outfielder Randy Arozarena, who can play both corner outfield spots and offers power, speed and solid defense. Arozarena is expected to fetch a three-to-four-year deal worth 17-22 million AAV. Other options for the Phillies include Cubs outfields Seiya Suzuki/Ian Happ, and Tigers second baseman Gleyber Torres, all expected to land in the 17-22 million AAV range, similar to Arozarena.
If the Phillies are serious about returning to World Series contention, they need to spend accordingly. Adding 1-2 high-leverage relievers and right-handed hitters would give the roster a needed boost in the NL east and strengthen its chances in a loaded National League. To the new regime, the goal should remain: bring a World Series back to Philadelphia.
